by Gerhard Massenbauer | May 12, 2025 | Analysis, Markets, Multi-currency
In my last article, published on 2 April, I warned of an impending slump in stock markets and emerging market currencies. While it was clear that tariffs were coming, what Trump presented as reciprocal tariffs came as a shock to capital market participants, myself...
by Gerhard Massenbauer | May 8, 2025 | Analysis, Markets, Multi-currency
The Euro is Only Part of the Story Over the past few months, I have repeatedly pointed out that it makes no sense to look at the USD against the euro. The USD has risen against all other currencies over the past 15 years and now, as expected, it is starting to fall...
by Gerhard Massenbauer | May 5, 2025 | Analysis, Multi-currency
The tremors caused by Trump’s tariff considerations have only just come to a halt. After the shock of his statement on Easter Monday that he wanted to fire Jay Powell, which he refused to do on Easter Tuesday, the USD fell to as low as 1.1575 EUR/USD. There is a...
by Gerhard Massenbauer | Apr 29, 2025 | Analysis, Markets, Multi-currency
The past few weeks have seen very wide swings in international stock and bond markets. Long-term interest rates have risen across the board, not only in the US but also in Europe and Japan. In particular, interest rates have undergone a correction in recent days,...
by Gerhard Massenbauer | Apr 15, 2025 | Analysis, Markets, Multi-currency
CEE currencies have come under pressure in the last two weeks, while the rouble and the TRY have held up relatively well. The fall in equity prices has always put pressure on CEE currencies. It was predictable that the US tariff policy would be critical for equity...
by Gerhard Massenbauer | Apr 9, 2025 | Analysis, Markets, Multi-currency
Many emerging market currencies are currently under severe pressure, not only from macroeconomic uncertainties but also from geopolitical tensions. Many EM countries are undergoing strategic rebalancing and looking for alternatives to the dominance of the US dollar....
