The War With Iran Is Coming to an End

This Is Good News for Stock Market Performance This Year In this issue, I will be examining a wide range of factors that are set to become important in the years ahead. While the impact of AI on the labour market is widely debated, does this necessarily lead to an...

An Early End to the War Would Revitalise Asia

Growth rates in Asia have proven to be remarkably resilient so far. While the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is certainly a cause for concern, I believe this could end very soon. If that happens, we can expect another significant upturn in the global...

The EUR/USD Exchange Rate Has Remained Unchanged Since April 2025

To understand the movements in EUR/USD over the past year, it is not helpful to pay too much attention to what is written or said about it online or on LinkedIn. In fact, over the past 13 months, the EUR/USD exchange rate has fluctuated by only +/- 3% within a fairly...

Weakness of the Pound, Strength of the Aussie

The performance of the major currencies against the euro varied last month, but they remained strong against the US dollar throughout. Both the pound and the yen still face the prospect of weaker exchange rates. While the pound is fairly valued or slightly overvalued,...

If the Situation Continues to De-Escalate, CEE Currencies Will Continue to Strengthen

Peter Magyar’s decisive election victory is a sensation, even if the exact nature of the changes to Hungarian politics is unclear. The only thing that is clear is that the Orbán system has collapsed, despite the highest regulatory hurdles being in place. Magyar can...

The USD Continues to Show no Clear Trend

The USD remains flat. In the editorial of Issue 8, I outlined a risk scenario that is becoming increasingly likely while the US continues to block the Strait of Hormuz unrestrainedly. This measure is tactically understandable, as it prevents the Tehran regime from...

If the U.S. Drags its Feet in Iran, Things Will Get Tight

If the U.S. does not want to be held responsible for triggering a global economic crisis with this disastrous war, I think it is now under considerable pressure to agree to a peace deal with Iran. A long time ago, I noticed that virtually every stock market and...

Operation Fury and Economic Fury

The Names Given to the Measures Against Iran Are as Aggressive as They Are Straightforward In this issue, I would like to take a closer look at the state of the U.S. economy, examining debt, growth and inflation trends. I believe that examining these aspects in more...

The War Against Iran Is Causing CEE Currencies to Falter

The 'surprise war' launched by the US and Israel against Iran has not only caused stock markets to plummet in recent days — a 8% drop over two days is not even a particularly strong reaction — but has also effectively doubled the price of petrol. Situations like this...

The USD Remains Strong – At Least for Now

I refer to short-term movements with low volatility as 'noise'. In the case of EUR/USD, volatility is considered low when the currency pair’s movements remain within a range of ±3% of a reference value. At the start of the year, the EUR/USD exchange rate was 1.1750....

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