And if So, Why?
Despite ordering an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, it is clear that President Trump is pursuing a generally peace-oriented policy. He has put economic pressure on Thailand to end its armed conflict with Cambodia before it escalates into war. Fighting between Pakistan and India has also stopped, partly because Trump is willing to talk to Pakistani leaders.
Given that we in Europe had prepared ourselves to support Ukraine to the bitter and very costly end, peace in Ukraine would be a strategic masterpiece. Although Russia is inherently interested in retaining most of the territories it has gained, it will ultimately relinquish some of them, potentially including the land connection to Crimea. Either way, Russia’s current desires will not be fully realised.
However, they have other prospects.
What the US is Really After
Over the past 50 years, no nation has been involved in as many armed conflicts as the US. While the US has largely presented itself as a defender of Western values, it has ultimately secured its own interests. Many of these conflicts were costly and unsuccessful (e.g. Vietnam and Afghanistan), contributing to a negative perception of Western values, particularly of the US.
The global balance of power has shifted as a result of China’s rise to power. In many countries in the Global South, China is now considered more important and respected than the former colonial powers of the West and the omnipotent USA.
The Global South feels left behind and reprimanded. It is also clear that the West — the US in particular — is applying double standards. When Western interests are at stake, values become secondary. Realpolitik is always about representing and asserting one’s own interests.
The US is Interested in Preventing Russia From Falling Completely into China’s Arms
The US’s interest in this matter is obvious, as is its disregard for its European ‘partners’, who recently boasted of their unwavering support for Ukraine.
The interests of the US also align with Putin’s concern that Russia will sink into insignificance as China’s junior partner and a pariah of the West with a declining population.
In exchange for access to raw materials and cheap energy, the US is prepared to give Russia leeway. This will also benefit Europe, whose vassals will be relieved when energy prices fall again, as they inevitably will.
Europe will hesitate for a while, but will ultimately be glad to continue receiving Russian gas. Russia will once again have a stable income and the US will be able to ‘stabilise’ Russia for a while. Whether this will work out in the long term is questionable, but I assume that the interests are currently aligned. Everyone stands to gain something, and the only ‘loser’ would be China, which has not yet absorbed Russia — something that the Russians are probably afraid of. The shared border is too large, China’s technological lead is too significant, and the population difference is too great.
The US and the West have not finished playing their cards in their own interests, and are doing so once again. I will discuss this in more detail in the coming weeks, once the necessary variables have fallen into place.
