by Gerhard Massenbauer | Apr 13, 2026 | Analysis, Markets, Multi-currency
The ‘surprise war’ launched by the US and Israel against Iran has not only caused stock markets to plummet in recent days — a 8% drop over two days is not even a particularly strong reaction — but has also effectively doubled the price of petrol....
by Gerhard Massenbauer | Apr 4, 2026 | Analysis, Markets, Multi-currency
I refer to short-term movements with low volatility as ‘noise’. In the case of EUR/USD, volatility is considered low when the currency pair’s movements remain within a range of ±3% of a reference value. At the start of the year, the EUR/USD exchange rate...
by Gerhard Massenbauer | Feb 16, 2026 | Analysis, Markets, Multi-currency
The outlook for emerging markets is steadily improving. Inflation rates in these markets have been significantly more favourable over the past 15 years than in previous decades. Additionally, many countries have improved their structural conditions because their...
by Gerhard Massenbauer | Feb 11, 2026 | Analysis, General, Markets, Multi-currency
The USD started the new year weakly. There was temporarily very high pressure, causing the USD to fall to 1.2050 against the euro. Currently, the USD is hovering around the 1.18 mark, and I expect this to be the average exchange rate over the coming weeks. If you need...
by Gerhard Massenbauer | Feb 6, 2026 | Analysis, General, Markets, Multi-currency
Fourteen months ago, I anticipated a rise in Asian currencies and expected this to fuel a recovery, which would in turn fuel further growth. As far as the CNY was concerned, this expectation was essentially realised in 2024, but was completely reversed in anticipation...
by Gerhard Massenbauer | Jan 22, 2026 | Analysis, Markets, Multi-currency
In light of the events at the beginning of the year, the limited reaction of the stock markets and exchange rates is surprising. The idea that aggressive actions are being taken but remain within a narrowly limited framework has become established. This no longer...
