There Has Been No Market Impact From Venezuela Yet

There has been little outrage in Latin America. Although Brazil and Mexico have lodged official protests, they have essentially remained calm. While it is inconceivable that the US could implement such a measure across the board, it cannot be ruled out that it could...

The Cycle Has Not Yet Ended, but It Is Already Overripe

Although There Are Many Inconsistencies, There Is no Immediate Cause For Concern Throughout my career, I have consistently adopted critical stances and viewpoints. As a child of the 1980s, I witnessed an incredible upswing in the '80s and '90s, which culminated in the...

Stable Development in CEE Continues

It is encouraging that there are no immediate risks on the horizon, meaning we can expect stability in developments. While the slow appreciation of currencies is unwelcome news for buyers in the CEE region, those who have kept their eyes open have been able to profit...

The USD Remains Weak. Those Who Fail to Hedge Will Pay the Price.

The last few weeks have been a mixed bag for Donald Trump. Ultimately, the elections brought success for the Democrats. His approval ratings for trade and economic policy are disastrous. Although the recent rise in inflation is not preventing Americans from consuming,...

A Risk-Off Scenario Is Unlikely

The past month has seen a lot of excitement surrounding the price development of crypto assets, which have lost a significant amount of value. International stock markets have also fallen from their recent highs. There have also been growing concerns about the...

There is Still Little FX Movement

There is Still Little FX Movement in Autumn Currency movements have virtually come to a standstill over the past month. The USD has fluctuated by less than 3%, and the CHF, SEK, AUD and CAD have also remained virtually unchanged. As expected, the pound continued to...

More of the Same – Signs Point to Continued USD Weakness

While the EUR/USD exchange rate has remained relatively unchanged in recent weeks, the CNY, THB and, in particular, the MYR have strengthened against the USD, while the JPY and KRW have weakened. The USD is moving slowly but steadily downward. This should be...

Good Prospects for the Global Economy

However, the Imbalances are Growing Immeasurably When I read newspaper reports, I am amazed at how some crude ideas take root. For example, we constantly read that the price of gold, which has doubled in the last two years, is clearly a bubble. Gold has increased in...

A Stock Market Correction Is Possible. Risk Off Is Unlikely

Given the performance of the stock markets since April 2020, it is not surprising that profit-taking is now occurring after another successful year in 2025. Given the high level of liquidity, the introduction of new debt programmes to finance new infrastructure and...

The USD Remains Weak and Is Not Even Managing a Technical Correction

Over the past few months, I have repeatedly emphasised that the rise in the USD over the last 15 years was caused by unsecured stock investments. Contrary to the frequent suggestion that foreigners have been withdrawing money from the US in recent months — a claim...

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Various Executive postions in multi-national companies, as well as major positions in professional politics in Austria, USA and EU.

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Treasury expert and former Head of FX Cash Derivatives at BAWAGPSK, Senior FX trader at Raiffeisen.