A Stock Market Correction Is Possible. Risk Off Is Unlikely

Given the performance of the stock markets since April 2020, it is not surprising that profit-taking is now occurring after another successful year in 2025. Given the high level of liquidity, the introduction of new debt programmes to finance new infrastructure and...

The USD Remains Weak and Is Not Even Managing a Technical Correction

Over the past few months, I have repeatedly emphasised that the rise in the USD over the last 15 years was caused by unsecured stock investments. Contrary to the frequent suggestion that foreigners have been withdrawing money from the US in recent months — a claim...

Gute Aussichten für EM-Währungen

EM-Währungen reagieren in aller Regel auf zwei Reize besonders positiv: Sinkende Zinsen im Rest der Welt bei hohen Realzinsen in EM Zeiten einer Rohstoffhausse Die gute Nachricht für alle – Die Zinsen sinken baw. Wenn ich von sinkenden Zinsen spreche, meine ich die...

Majors Are Moving Sideways Against the USD

There Was Still Little Movement at the Beginning of Autumn Compared to the previous month, there has been little to no change. The pound has continued its downward trend, while the Swiss franc has strengthened somewhat in recent days. Overall, the situation on the...

Limited Movement in Trend: USD Weakness Boosts Asian Trade

There has been no change since last month's assessment. Asian currencies remain strong against the US dollar, albeit less so than against the euro, which has appreciated more strongly than the Japanese yen, Chinese yuan, or ASEAN currencies this year. Apart from the...

The World is Becoming Increasingly Turbulent

100% Tariffs Against China are on the Table On Friday evening, I returned to Vienna from the Alpbach Financial Symposium. En route, I saw a news report stating that Trump intended to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese exports and cancel the planned meeting with Xi Jinping...

CEE Remains Stable to Firm

From an economic perspective, apart from the ongoing drone incidents, the outlook for CEE currencies is likely to remain positive in the coming months and well into 2026. Relatively large wage increases are supporting consumption, while inflation, which has now...

The USD is Still in a Downward Trend

Over the past few months, I have repeatedly emphasised that the rise of the USD against the euro over the past 15 years was caused by unsecured stock investments. Contrary to the frequent suggestion that foreigners have been withdrawing money from the US in recent...

Exchange Rates for EM Currencies are to Remain Fixed

Emerging markets generally experience gains in value during periods of relative weakness in the USD. Over the past 18 months, the Fed's failure to significantly cut interest rates, unlike in Europe and Asia where inflation rates fell more sharply, has had a negative...

There are Important Developments Underway on a Large Scale

The Race is on! Who Will Last the Longest? In recent years, I have repeatedly pointed out that it is no surprise that the US is growing faster and is more productive than Europe, because, unlike in Europe, credit growth was not reduced, but instead massively...

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