As expected, the Trump administration’s defeat has led to a tirade of abuse from the president and his entourage. This is as predictable as it is pathetic.
The illegality of the tariffs is obvious. The Supreme Court had no option but to uphold the rulings of the lower courts.
I find it interesting that the current administration is nevertheless being treated with kid gloves by Congress and the Senate. Trump must strike fear into them.
People See Few Advantages
We often read about the K-shaped recovery of the American economy. This means that wealthy Americans can enjoy a lavish lifestyle thanks to rapidly rising asset prices, while rising prices and modest wage increases are impoverishing the middle and lower income classes. This is reflected in poor consumer satisfaction figures. The former, however, keeps retail sales surprisingly high. As the whole economy is benefiting from high investment in the future, the result is favourable for US gross domestic product.
The general population’s dissatisfaction is also reflected in the Trump 2.0 administration’s miserable poll ratings.
How Long Will the Republicans Hold Out?
By Q2 at the latest, an assessment will have been made of which members of Congress and senators are up for re-election in November’s midterm elections. How helpful is it to show Trump unconditional obedience? And how helpful would it be for my re-election to offer resistance? Support is fragile or has already crumbled, especially in the Republican states bordering Canada. As the year progresses, I expect the image of American domestic politics to generate more uncertainty abroad.
However, if it sees its plans going up in smoke, it is also likely that the Trump 2.0 administration will take an even more aggressive stance.
Europe Is Facing a Crucial Test
The war in Ukraine has now been ongoing for four years, with no realistic prospect of ending soon. The gruelling trench warfare is consuming human lives and resources, and seems as senseless as the trench battles of the First World War.
The fact that the war in Ukraine has been ongoing for almost as long as the First World War gives me hope that it will end soon.
Europe could help Ukraine achieve this in a dignified manner. However, Hungary and Slovakia still obtain a considerable portion of their energy cheaply from Russia. Both countries have now used the interruption to energy supplies caused by the attack on Ukraine as an excuse to veto further support for Ukraine, despite the fact that this had already been agreed in principle by the EU.
This will lead to deliberations and, probably, measures within the EU to work towards abolishing the unanimity principle. This can only be achieved by stripping these two states of their voting rights, which is permitted by the statutes if they are accused of acting against the interests of the community of states. Overcoming such resistance would, however, pose an existential threat to the EU.
